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Blistering Future Summers for 1,001 U.S. Cities

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Research Report by Climate Central

If it feels hot to you now in the dog days of this summer, imagine a time when summertime Boston starts feeling like Miami and even Montana sizzles. 

Thanks to climate change, that day is coming by the end of the century, making it harder to avoid simmering temperatures.

Summers in most of the U.S. are already warmer than they were in the 1970s. And climate models tell us that summers are going to keep getting hotter as greenhouse gas emissions continue. What will this warming feel like? Our new analysis of future summers illustrates just how dramatic warming is going to be by the end of this century if current emissions trends continue unabated.

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For our Blistering Future Summers interactive we have projected summer high temperatures for the end of this century for 1,001 cities, and then showed which city in the U.S. — or elsewhere in the world, if we couldn’t find one here — is experiencing those temperatures today. We’ve highlighted several striking examples on the interactive, but make sure to explore and find how much hotter summers will likely be in your city.

By the end of the century, assuming the current emissions trends, Boston’s average summer high temperatures will be more than 10°F hotter than they are now, making it feel as balmy as North Miami Beach is today. Summers in Helena, Mont., will warm by nearly 12°F, making it feel like Riverside, Calif.

In fact, by the end of this century, summers in most of the 1,001 cities we analyzed will feel like summers now in Texas and Florida (in temperatures only, not humidity). And in Texas, most cities are going to feel like the hottest cities now in the Lone Star State, or will feel more like Phoenix and Gilbert in Arizona, among the hottest summer cities in the U.S. today.

In some cases, summers will warm so dramatically that their best comparison is to cities in the Middle East. Take Las Vegas, for example. Summer highs there are projected to average a scorching 111°F, which is what summer temperatures are like today in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. And at 114°F°, living in Phoenix will feel like summering in sweltering Kuwait City. 

On average, summer heat is projected to warm 7-10°F, though some cities will have summers 12°F warmer than they are now. As you explore the interactive, you’ll find that for cities in the Northwest, the Great Plains, the Midwest, and the Northeast, warming is best illustrated by a southward shift. In some cases, however, the shift is slightly northward and inland — for example, warming in coastal San Diego will make it feel like Lexington, Ky., — and represents more than a 6°F temperature increase.  

This analysis only accounts for daytime summer heat — the hottest temperatures of the day, on average between June-August — and doesn’t incorporate humidity or dewpoint, both of which contribute to how uncomfortable summer heat can feel. This projected warming also assumes greenhouse gas emissions keep increasing through 2080, just as they have been for the past several decades.

Related Content
Heat Is On: U.S. Temperature Trends
Summertime Blues? U.S. Seeing Red as Temps Rise 
Map Shows When Summer Heat Peaks in Your Town

Comments

By Lee Crocker (70611)
on July 9th, 2014

If it says my town will be 90º in 2100, and its about 96º-107º now. Im okay with this.

Reply to this comment

By Ed
on July 11th, 2014

please read about the difference between weather and climate. Here is a nice 2 minute video: http://youtu.be/cBdxDFpDp_k

Reply to this comment

By Paul (Boston, MA 01505)
on July 16th, 2014

Its blistering 73 degrees here in Massachusetts in mid July at 1:00.
Later this week they are predicting we should get up to the low’s 80’s.
Might break out the shorts if it gets any hotter.

Reply to this comment

By Francisco d'Anconia (11101)
on July 10th, 2014

#MoveNorth

Reply to this comment

By Lee Borso (54221)
on July 10th, 2014

Entered Green Bay, WI and it says the summer will be like Miami, FL. Can we have it now? It would be nice to see 80 degrees this summer

Reply to this comment

By J Yelenick (Henderson/Colorado/80640)
on July 12th, 2014

Would you like the influx of American climate refugees from the lower latitudes also with these nice summer days?

Reply to this comment

By Jon Do
on July 16th, 2014

Climate-based relocation is why I moved south, like many other people. Climate-based migration is nothing new, it’s been happening for as long as man has been around.

Reply to this comment

By JP (Phoenix)
on August 26th, 2014

So true, I moved all the way across the country to escape the COLD. Now I plan on moving north but only within my state. I can totally relate to the guy in Green Bay, for all I care the whole world can move to WI.

Reply to this comment

By Craig (colorado springs)
on July 12th, 2014

Can they do the same thing so show what the winters will be like in 2100? That would be interesting also.

Reply to this comment

By Doc J (Northern state)
on July 10th, 2014

If we were really serious about vehicle emissions, we’d simply lower our National freeway speed limit to 60MPH max 50 states! It’s instant, cheap, proven, fair, saves lives and oil! Read any MPG forum on planet earth and see data-vehicle emissions spike dramatically above 60 MPH and MPG drops like a rock on most vehicles-250 million of them in the US! KISS!
Also, we might want to incentivize companies to do WebX meetings instead of fly everyone all over the country 24/7?

Reply to this comment

By BikerDude (Tallahassee/FL/32310)
on July 12th, 2014

Do you honestly believe that rules will be created/enacted that will negatively impact the oil industry?

Reply to this comment

By Jon Do
on July 16th, 2014

You must be too young to remember that the speed limit was reduced to 55 mph for decades. People hated it because it increase driving times, and people routinely flouted the law.

Reply to this comment

By Jennifer Catherine (Buffalo NY)
on July 11th, 2014

Well, Buffalo will be like Delray Beach, FL in the summer.  Big deal, it is already hot and humid in the summer here.  Will it be like Delray Beach, FL in the winter?  If so, I may try to live to be 130 so I can enjoy it.

Reply to this comment

By Daniel (Reston, Virginia)
on July 11th, 2014

It will be a big deal when you go to the grocery store. Almost all of the U.S. bread basket states are heading for a climate that is not conducive to growing corn or wheat. Our children and grandchildren are going to pay dearly for our mistakes.

Reply to this comment

By Jon Do
on July 16th, 2014

The north american ‘bread basket’ would move north, into the northern US and southern Canada. A change, yes, but no one will starve because of it.

Reply to this comment

By Jay (Taos)
on July 20th, 2014

Its silly to think that the bread basket will simply move north and that will be an easy transition… and no one will starve because of it.

Its more likely that the transition will be difficult, costly, and we will all suffer for it.

Reply to this comment

By Cindi Freeburn (Delray Beach)
on July 11th, 2014

Dear Jennifer,

Our son lives in Buffalo, and we live in Delray Beach, FL (formerly Philadelphia) !! I’m doubting winters will change that dramatically, but you really should try to visit here in the winter—NOW, not when you’re 130 !!  Delray Beach is one of the most wonderful towns in America! 

Reply to this comment

By Andrew Zimmerman (Sacramento)
on July 11th, 2014

Why didn’t you include Alaska?

Reply to this comment

By Jose A. (Fresno, CA 93722)
on August 20th, 2014

i KNOW RIGHT? I would like to see Alaska and Hawaii.

Reply to this comment

By James (90036)
on July 11th, 2014

I would absolutely love to see a global version of this map.

Reply to this comment

By sherry (21087)
on July 12th, 2014

Yep, how will Riyadh and Kuwait City feel in 2100?

Reply to this comment

By Holly Dolly (Burlington, VT)
on July 11th, 2014

This is very interesting, but what will the winter temps look like? Can you guys post that too? Thanks!

Reply to this comment

By Joel (Moses Lake, WA 98837)
on July 11th, 2014

I’d be curious to see what the temperatures in Saskatoon, or Fairbanks, or Yellowknife will be like for comparison, and what that will do for the growing season in those more northerly areas. (Assuming all this data is correct, of course.)

Reply to this comment

By Kat
on July 12th, 2014

Well, considering texas summers are already 100 to 115 i see no problem with no change. Plus, this year has been super cold, it even iced for a week this year!

Reply to this comment

By Grant Evans (Laos)
on July 12th, 2014

Are you serious? You talk about global climate change but the only cities a available here are in the USA?

Reply to this comment

By Brad
on July 12th, 2014

An earlier poster was curious about winter temperature changes, as am I due to my seasonal type of work. Winter snow and summer moderation bring increased business.

Another thought bothers me even more. How will this affect many of the things that have drastic effects on our weather now. The California current for instance. Will these temperature variations cause changes to its direction? What about how it will affect coastal Alaska’s climate? The Aleutian Islands? It was my understanding the warm water current from Japan and the South Pacific kept the climate much more moderate. If that temperature is higher how will that affect the ecosystem there? I by the Great Lakes. How will warmer summer lake temps change the winters here?

We are not being good stewards of our planet. Putting economic advancement ahead of long term planetary health. how long until tropical/subtropical places in the US become deserts? When we use our technology for our betterment rather than detriment?

Reply to this comment

By Jack
on July 12th, 2014

ow, you need to pick a better climate model, CMIP5 is weak.

Also, RCP8.5 is completely unrealistic.

Reply to this comment

By Bob (Seattle, WA 97021)
on July 12th, 2014

The snow pack will melt long before the start of summer, just as it has in CA in 2014. That means drought, forests prone to bug infestation, and wild fires on a massive scale.  Though the climate would be nice in Alaska and Siberia, the areas currently housing the bulk of the planet’s population, and areas used to grow the bulk of the food will be nasty.  Then again, the sudden melting of Greenland could change underwater ocean currents and something more interesting could happen instead. Sure would be nice to stick around to see what happens.

Reply to this comment

By Jon Do
on July 16th, 2014

Vast northern continental land areas would be unlocked if warmer temperatures migrate north.

Reply to this comment

By Shane LaHousse (Ann Arbor)
on July 12th, 2014

Oh Michigan, New York, Vermont and the rest of the Sugar Maple states get used to no Maple syrup.  The Sugar Maples can only run 60 miles a century, too bad.  I guess that’s natural selection.

Reply to this comment

By Peter (CT 06066)
on July 13th, 2014

An 8-10 degree temperature difference is a big deal. Going from an average high of 84 degrees in July from my location near Hartford CT- to 95 degrees is substantial. Temperatures n the winter are likely to average at least 5 degrees warmer or more in the coldest month. Hartford has an average high in January of 35 so an increase of 6 degrees to the lower 40s is also a big difference. Meaning less snow. The climatic zones will in fact shift north. Hartford will definitely be in the humid subtropical zone. Additionally in the summer- the number of 90 or better days here now is near 20- by mid century that will double, and by 2070 and after that will rise to 75 days, with 20 days 100 or better.

Those here thinking that is is going to be easy for humans to adapt to are sadly misinformed.

Reply to this comment

By Gwyan Rhabyt (95017)
on July 14th, 2014

This estimate is likely to be completely false for my location and for many terrain driven climates. This model estimates that our summer temperature will go up by 8 degrees. But I live on the coast and whenever inland temperatures go up, we see an increase of ocean fog and our local temperature goes down. Because of this our hottest months are May and October. Maybe global warming will mean we will have hotter Aprils and Novembers, and I’m sure twenty miles inland will have hotter summers, but I worry that my summers will be getting colder.

Reply to this comment

By big g (57603)
on July 16th, 2014

It says it will be ten degrees hotter bring it on

Reply to this comment

By Paul (Boston, MA 01505)
on July 16th, 2014

I have lived in Massachusetts for the past 40 years and over the part 10 years it has been getting gradually colder in the summer.  It used to be very warm in June and now it is common to use the heat in the car in the mornings in June.  It doesnt start getting hot until the beginning of July.  Right now in the middle of the day it is a blistering 73 degrees.  The rest of this week is forecested to be in the low’s 80’s.  We have been more and more rain the past two years.  By Sept 1st there is already a chill in the air.  Over the past 10 years we have been getting a ton of rain especially April - June.  Most weekends are rained out completely.  So I know what the data shows, but from experience I can tell you it does not feel like we are getting warmer.  Just the opposite.

Reply to this comment

By JPrice
on July 16th, 2014

This is friggin great!!!! now give me an accurate forecast for Saturday and this may begin to have creedence.

Reply to this comment

By G.H.Waite (94611)
on July 16th, 2014

Tried a few scenarios. The coastal town I live in will probably be cooler because when the hot air inland hits the sea, it fogs up and drops to 66 degrees every day in August. If anything, warmer inland temps will make it foggier where I live. This map appears to just dump 7-10 degrees onto the existing summer temperature (which is listed too high for where I live - it’s not 72, it’s 66) without taking microclimate or um science into account.

Reply to this comment

By Jon Do
on July 16th, 2014

The “prediction” for my area (northern Alabama) is for an increase of the average summer temp by about 9 degrees. As another poster alluded to, the prediction must be a ‘cookie cutter’ guess, because in this area the only way we get to 100 degrees is because of a long dry spell. Because of Gulf moisture, the humidity is typically too high for the temps to get above about 92 degrees. I would guess most people would not understand the science behind that (my degrees are in Geography), but the problem with the prediction is that would require a near-perpetual drought in northern Alabama (such as a permanent dust-bowl like the 1930’s). My advise is not to make your retirement plans based upon this map…

Reply to this comment

By The Truth (Dallas Tx 75075)
on July 18th, 2014

Junk Science strikes again.
Cut and paste this Propoganda for your kids to laugh at 80 years from now.
Yesterday in Texas it was the coldest day in history of July 17th.
LOL at junk science.
Wake up Sheeple.

Reply to this comment

By David
on July 18th, 2014

We just had a 63 degree high day in the middle of July, The last 2 years in Minnesota have been colder and wetter than average. I have only been able to use my pool, 6 times in 2 years. I’m praying for warmer weather.

Reply to this comment

By EvilBob (Minnesota)
on July 18th, 2014

12 degrees warmer in St. Paul in January?  FREAKING AWESOME!  I’m going to go drive around in my Expedition for no reason, other than to see if I can make 15 degrees warmer in the winter.

The thing that the alarmists forget is that “change” (even if it IS real) is not necessarily “bad”.  The guy who bakes in Guatemala is offset by the kid who doesn’t get frostbite in Siberia.  The guy who can’t grow wheat in his fields anymore can now plant strawberries, etc.  Change is change, and nothing more.  And if the point is to tell me that things change, my only response is a sarcastic “no sh*t, REALLY?!?  You mean that whole Ice Age thing wasn’t just a bad series of kids’ movies???”

Reply to this comment

By Shahmeran
on August 5th, 2014

There are a lot more people at the latitude of Guatemala than there are around Siberia, for one thing. Also, humans nearly went extinct from climate change caused by the Toba eruption 70,000 years ago; sudden climate change is not a cake walk. It won’t be a simple switch from wheat to strawberries (for one thing, strawberries take more water, which is going to be in short supply in a lot of the southern latitudes). A lot of people will starve. A lot of people will migrate. This will probably cause wars.

Will we survive as a species? Probably. How many of us and with what kind of quality of life I’m not so sure.

Reply to this comment

By Lou Natick (94503)
on July 19th, 2014

I’m a little ways away from the SF Bay Area, got away from there because SF is really too cold and windy for me. I love the heat, was born in the Central American jungle anyways, so love it hot and humid. The graph shows my town going from 83 to 90, I HOPE so, even where I’m at now the wind rarely stops. Even on the rare times that it reaches 100, it’s no big deal, I LOVE IT! I just drink more beer, get wet with the misters, hang out by the river,,what’s there not to like? I find it hilarious how people around here start freaking out when it reaches 80. They love it cold, windy foggy,,these people are sick. Bring it on Global Warming, you’re welcome around me!

Reply to this comment

By TyrannyOfEvilMen (Tracy, CA)
on July 19th, 2014

Looks to me like northern real estate in the US is going to BOOM! Go NORTH, young man!

Reply to this comment

By Lucas Johnson (Northfield, MN)
on July 20th, 2014

I don’t know where all this global warming is. It’s been a very below average summer here, we might have hit 90 one day so far this summer. In the middle of summer here in MN now, and it’s barely warm enough to enjoy outdoor water activities. I think we have a one day heat wave coming, a whopping 90 day. Then back to the 70’s. I’m not believing any of this warming crap it’s not happening here

Reply to this comment

By JP
on August 26th, 2014

Of course the person from MN has to complain… I used to live there and yes MN will be one of the last places in the country to see global warming.  But imagine 100+ degrees where you live- I’ve experienced it there and with 90% humidity it is far worse than any temp in the southwest that is dry. 

So anyone contemplating a nice cool summer in MN in 2100 would be sadly mistaken!

Enjoy your 70’s.

Reply to this comment

By TrueSceptic (Northampton, UK)
on July 30th, 2014

Would it be possible to include an option to choose different RCPs? What you are showing is worst case, and this is bound to lead to claims of “climate alarmism” from the “skeptics”.

It would also be nice to include the rest of the world.

Reply to this comment

By agfosterjr (Taylorsville, Utah 84129)
on July 30th, 2014

I see this model has Miami warming by 6F, while most of the country warms by 11F.  Presumably polar warming would be amplified, leading to ice melting and sea level rise.  If the West Antarctic goes any time soon that should put Miami under water, which ought to cool it a little.  Still beach property values rise—everyone’s a skeptic.  Except Al Gore, who has wisely bought his $9M beach house on the CA coast, high above the ocean. —AGF

Reply to this comment

By Jose A. (Fresno, CA 93722)
on August 20th, 2014

I will turn 108 if still alive in 2100 lol, which I highly doubt I will be alive then. This would then be left to, hopefully, my future children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. Considering where I live summers reach from 100 to 110 degrees, maybe Fresno, CA will have temperatures up to 120 degrees in 2100 if greenhouse gases are added at the current level. What if they are managed to be reduced? How much hotter will summers be like by the end of this century if warming slows? What about how winters will be like? I’m sure there could also be some very cold winters. And I wonder how already-desert places will be like in 2100 regardless of how many greenhouse gases are added. And why not have a global map of predicted summers for 2100 as well?

Reply to this comment

By Steve (06492)
on September 30th, 2014

This was by far the nicest summer here in the northeast I ever remember. It wasnt hot at all, only needed the AC’s for a few days. And there was no 100 degree days. Im not doubting warming however- I think the cooler pacific has something to do with it. It happens every 50 years- the pacific cools and the US mainland gets odd weather.

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