News Section
Stories from Climate Central's Science Journalists and Content Partners

California’s Snow Loss to Hit Winter Sports, Water Supply

By Tim Radford, Climate News Network

LONDON - By mid-century, the snow-capped mountains of Southern California will be a lot less snowy, according to a new study from the University of California Los Angeles.

The mountains beyond Pasadena, Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Venice Beach and other iconic addresses will have 30 to 40 percent less snow on top and none at all at lower elevations. And by 2100, snowfall could be reduced to about a third of its level in 2000.

By mid-century, the snow-capped peaks of Southern California with have 30-40 percent less snow than today.
Credit: flickr/ahhdrjones

Alex Hall, of UCLA’s department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, warned “Climate change has become inevitable, and we’re going to lose a substantial amount of snow by mid-century. But our choices matter. By the end of the century there will be stark differences in how much snowfall remains, depending on whether we begin to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.”

The study was produced with funding from the City of Los Angeles – the city’s mayor Antonio Villaraigosa called it “clear and compelling” – and it examined snowfall in the San Gabriel and San Bernadino mountains and other ranges.

The consequences for tourist and leisure industries could be considerable: local enthusiasts use the slopes for skiing and snowboarding; lower snowfalls could have implications for water supplies, agriculture and increased flooding from more frequent rains.

More flooding

The scientists used climate models and real data from local townships to quantify future snow forecasts, but did not measure snow melt. Earlier research had established that the city and its environs could expect to experience a warming of 4° to 5°F (around 2.5°C) by mid-century.

By then, the snowpack would be melting 16 days earlier than it did at the beginning of the century. Temperatures would fall to freezing later, and less often, so what fell would be rain, with quicker runoff and more flooding as a consequence.
The consequences for tourist and leisure industries could be considerable: local enthusiasts use the slopes for skiing and snowboarding.
Credit: flickr/Ryan Malhoski

The researcher considered two scenarios – one the notorious “business as usual” prospect, in which greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise without restraint, and the other a world in which governments and society tried to significantly reduce emissions.

By 2050, under the mitigation scenario, snowfall would be reduced 31 percent by 2050, but would stay relatively stable and only be at 33 percent below baseline by 2100. If the world fails to take action to mitigate climate change, by 2100 however, loss of snow is expected to reach 67 percent by the end of the century.

“Los Angeles must begin today to prepare for climate change,” said Mayor Villaraigosa. “We invested in this study and created the AdaptLA framework to craft innovative solutions and preserve our quality of life for the next generation of Angelenos.” 

Tim Radford is a reporter for Climate News Network.Climate News Network is a news service led by four veteran British environmental reporters and broadcasters. It delivers news and commentary about climate change for free to media outlets worldwide.

Comments

By Steve Goddard (Fort Collins CO 80525)
on June 23rd, 2013

North American snow cover has been steadily increasing, with four of the five snowiest years occurring since 2004.

It is more likely that snowfall will increase.

Reply to this comment

By Eric Peterson (Front Royal, VA 22630)
on June 24th, 2013

From the article: “Alex Hall, of UCLA’s department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, warned “Climate change has become inevitable, and we’re going to lose a substantial amount of snow by mid-century”

Since this study uses downscaling, the certainty expressed in the snippet above is completely unjustified.  It is akin to saying that they could predict this week’s dry season rainfall in Northern California by using the ENSO forecast.  Not only the summer ENSO forecast notoriously inaccurate, but it says absolutely nothing about local conditions.

ENSO forecasting is the weather equivalent of climate modeling and it is very poor in summer and only a little better in winter.  Downscaling is the equivalent of taking an ENSO forecast and feeding its likely-to-be-junk output into a weather model.

Reply to this comment

By Kevin (Nashville, TN)
on June 24th, 2013

Steve,

Um, do you really not see the logical fallacy of your argument?  Nashville is running a surplus on rainfall.  Does that mean that New Mexico won’t continue to experience extreme drought?  Of course not.  So even if it’s true (haven’t double-checked you on this) that the overall average snow cover in the entire continent of North America is increasing, that doesn’t mean that certain regions - like Southern California - won’t see large decreases is snow cover.

Kevin

Reply to this comment

By Jim Bouldin (Davis CA)
on June 25th, 2013

Are you utterly unable to discriminate between “models predict” and “will” in your first photo caption above.

Don’t mislead people OK?

Reply to this comment

Name (required):
Email (required):
City/State/Zip:
Enter the word "climate" in the box below:

[+] View our comment guidelines.

Please note: Comment moderation is enabled. Your comment will not appear until reviewed by Climate Central staff. Thank you for your patience.