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Claudia Tebaldi

Claudia Tebaldi


Dr. Tebaldi collaborates with Climate Central's Climate Science and Impacts group and provides scientific oversight for the Climate Matters program. She is a climate statistician at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and her research interests include the analysis of observations and climate model output in order to characterize observed and projected climatic changes and their uncertainties. She has published papers on detection and attribution of these changes, on extreme value analysis, future projections at regional levels, and impacts of climate change on agriculture and human health and she is a lead author of the fifth Assessment report of the IPCC, Working Group 1. She has a Ph.D. in statistics from Duke University.


  • Meehl, G.A, Hu, A., Tebaldi C. et al. (2012) Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea level rise. Nature Climate Change, forthcoming. 
  • Tebaldi, C., Strauss, B.H. and C.E. Zervas (2012) Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014032 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032.
  • Duffy, P.B. and C. Tebaldi (2012) Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the U.S. Climatic Change, 111, no. 2, pp. 487-495.
  • Tebaldi, C., Arblaster, J.M. and R. Knutti (2011) Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L23701.
  • Mastrandrea, M.D., Tebaldi, C., Snyder, C.P. and S.H. Schneider (2011) Current and Future Impacts of Extreme Events in California. Climatic Change, 109, SI, pp. 43-70.
  • Alexander, L.A. and C. Tebaldi (2011) Climate and Weather Extremes: Observations, Modeling and Projections, in “Future of the World’s Climate”, Henderson Sellers and McGuffie Eds., Elsevier, pp. 253-288.
  • Hegerl, G., Zwiers, F. and C. Tebaldi (2011) Patterns of change: Whose fingerprinting is seen in global warming? Environmental Research Letters, 6, no.4, 044025.
  • Peng R.D., Bobb, J.F., Tebaldi, C. et al., (2011) Toward aQuantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119, no. 5, pp. 701-706.
  • Meehl, G.A., Hu, A. and C. Tebaldi (2010) Decadal prediction in the pacific region. Journal of Climate, 23, no. 11, pp. 2959- 2973.
  • Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C. et al. (2010) Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. Journal of Climate, 23, no. 10, pp. 2739-2758.
  • G. Meehl, C.Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. Easterling, and L. McDaniel (2009), The relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the US, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23701, doi:10.1029/2009GL040736
  • W. M. Washington, R. Knutti, G. A. Meehl, H. Teng, C. Tebaldi, D. Lawrence, L. Buja, and W. G. Strand (2009), How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08703, doi:10.1029/2008GL037074
  • R. L. Smith, C. Tebaldi, D. Nychka and L.O.Mearns (2009), Bayesian modeling of uncertainty in ensembles of climate models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 104, no. 485, pp.97116.
  • D. G. Groves, D. Yates, and C. Tebaldi (2008), Developing and applying uncertain global climate change pro jections for regional water management planning, Water Resour. Res., 44, W12413, doi:10.1029/2008WR006964.
  • C. Tebaldi  and B. Sanso (2008) Joint pro jections of temperature and precipitation change from multiple climate models: a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, Vol. 172, no. 1, pp. 83-106.
  • C. Tebaldi and D. B. Lobell (2008), Towards probabilistic pro jections of climate change impacts on global crop yields. Geophysical Research Letters. , Vol. 35, L08705, doi:10.1029/2008GL033423
  • D. B. Lobell, M. B. Burke, C. Tebaldi, M. D. Mastrandrea, W. P. Falcon, and R. L. Naylor (2008), Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, Vol. 319, no. 5863, pp. 607-610.
  • G. A. Meehl, C. Tebaldi, H. Teng and T. C. Peterson (2007), Current and future U.S. weather extremes and El Nino Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, L20704, doi:10.1029/2007GL031027.
  • G. A. Meehl, J. M. Arblaster and C. Tebaldi (2007), Contributions of natural and anthro- pogenic forcing to changes in temperature extremes over the U.S. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, L19709, doi:10.1029/2007GL030948.
  • H. J. Fowler, Blenkinsop, S. and C. Tebaldi (2007), Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 27, no. 12, pp. 1547-1578.
  • C. Tebaldi and R. Knutti (2007), The use of the multimodel ensemble in probabilistic climate pro jections. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (special issue on Probabilistic Climate Change Projections), Vol. 365, pp. 2053-2075.
  • C. Tebaldi, K. Hayhoe, J. M. Arblaster, and G. A. Meehl (2006), Going to the extremes: An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change, Vol. 79, pp. 185-211.
  • A. Lopez, C. Tebaldi, M. New, D. Stainforth, M. Allen and J. Kettleborough (2006), Two approaches to quantifying uncertainty in global temperature changes. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, pp. 4785 - 4796.
  • G. A. Meehl, J. M. Arblaster and C. Tebaldi (2005), Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, L18719, doi:10.1029/2005GL023680.
  • C. Tebaldi, R. W. Smith, D. Nychka and L. O. Mearns (2005), Quantifying uncertainty in Projections of Regional Climate Change: a Bayesian Approach to the Analysis of Multi-model Ensembles. Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, pp. 1524-1540.
  • C. Tebaldi, L. O. Mearns., D. Nychka and R. W. Smith (2004), Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 31, L24213, doi:10.1029/2004GL021276.
  • G. A. Meehl, C. Tebaldi and D. Nychka (2004), Changes in Frost Days in Simulations of 21st Century Climate. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 23, no. 5, pp. 495-512.
  • G. A. Meehl and C. Tebaldi (2004), More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, Vol. 305, no. 5686, pp. 994-997.
  • G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, C. M. Ammann, J. A. Arblaster, T. M. Wigley and C. Tebaldi (2004), Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings in 20th century climate. Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, pp. 3721-3727.