Report Warns of Worsening Western Water Crisis

Published: February 14th, 2011, Last Updated: February 14th, 2011

Last month, we ran a series on water resources in the American Southwest. The stories, by veteran environment reporter Tom Yulsman, made clear that current trends of water supply and demand in the Colorado River basin are simply unsustainable, and resource managers face a series of tough choices ahead.

Now a new report, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute, an environmental think tank, warns of climate change-related water shortages in the region, and recommends various approaches to restricting water use in the region.

The report starkly summarizes the current situation in the southwestern states (Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah): "In the U.S. Southwest... there is less rain and snowfall each year than the amount of water used in the region. Today that shortfall is made up for by pumping groundwater, well beyond the sustainable rate," the reports states. "Add the impacts of growing population and incomes, and the Southwest will face a major water crisis in the coming decades."

Lake Powell is a man-made reservoir on the Colorado River, straddling the border between Utah and Arizona. It is the second largest man-made reservoir in the United States behind Lake Mead. Credit: Wolfgang Staudt/flickr

As Yulsman's articles made clear, the water woes facing the Southwest are bad enough even without considering the likely impacts of climate change. In general, most computer model simulations, as well as climate change theory, project that as the world warms due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, the Southwest will become hotter and drier, thereby increasing water demands from the agricultural sector and reducing supplies.

"With the more serious temperature increases likely to result from current trends in world greenhouse gas emissions, demand for agricultural water will clash with other uses," the report states.

Authors of the report examined the size of the water shortfall, from the present day and out to 100 years from now. These calculations make it remarkably clear how climate change can best be viewed as an aggravating factor, but not the root cause, of the water resources crunch. According to the report, the Southwest is projected to use 1.3 million acre feet of groundwater between 2010 and 2110, of which about 260 million acre feet would be overdraft. Adding only baseline growth of population and income, the Southwest's water shortfall is projected to total nearly 1.8 million acre feet by 2110, which would rise to 2.23 million acre feet under a "business as usual" emissions scenario.

The report puts the water shortfall into economic terms by calculating how much it would cost to buy the projected water shortfall.

The result: one gargantuan water bill.

Southwestern states' projected groundwater extraction during the period 2010 to 2110. The red marks the projected shortfall. All numbers in millions of acre feet. Credit: SEI.

The report finds the "baseline water shortfall" during the next century, without including climate change impacts, would cost between $2.3 and $4 billion dollars at today's prices. This sum increases when you add climate change to the mix.

So, what are the solutions to this seemingly intractable situation, in which demand is projected to outstrip supply by an ever-increasing amount?

The report rules out increasing the extraction of groundwater (not enough groundwater available), as well as importing water supplies or building desalination plants (impractical and expensive). Instead, the authors say the only viable solution is through limiting water use, particularly in urban areas and within the agricultural sector. The report recommends that many farmers switch to growing more valuable products, rather than using large amounts of water to grow low value crops.

"... many farmers are growing crops worth less than $1000 per acre foot of water use, and half of all agricultural water is used to grow crops worth less than $1,200 per acre foot. Some farmers, in other words, could make more selling water than using that same water to grow crops," the report states.

The report emphasizes the need for adaptation measures that would reduce water use in the Southwest, stating: "The bottom line question is not whether adaptation is difficult or expensive, compared to the unsustainable option of doing nothing. The question for water planning is, are there adaptation scenarios that will solve the Southwest's water problem at a cost, over the coming century, of less than several trillion dollars?"

Posted in Projections, Climate, Extremes, Drought, Policy, Solutions, Society, United States, Southwest, Extreme Planet

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Comments

By Bill Wells (Hemet, California - 92545)
on February 17th, 2011

I have been involved in energy saving devices for over a decade. The water issue is more important than electircity or gas. I have found a product, and am selling it, that reduces the water con sumption on various commericail applications by 15 to 20 per cent. Please review: www.H2minusO.com . Several large property management groups, car washes, and hospitals are currently using this product and are ordering more. If you have any questions please call me at 800-955-2238. Thanks and this issue needs to be addressed, recognized, and acted upon or it will only get worse very soon. Bill Wells

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Andrew Freedman

Andrew Freedman is a senior science writer for Climate Central, focusing on coverage of extreme weather and climate change. Prior to working with Climate Central, Freedman was a reporter for C...